ADP report on jobs disappoints in April 2011

In April 2011, employment growth in the private sector was strong but under expectations. The ADP report remains positive for the US economy.

ADP report on jobs disappoints in April 2011
In April 2011, the employment growth in the private sector (ADP report) was disappointing. Job creations reached +179k after 207k in March. This is significantly under the consensus expectations (+200k) and the weakest recorded since last November. Payrolls in services rise by +138k and by +41k in the industry.

Economic Impacts
The ADP report for April 2011 implies (at best) a stable growth for total NFP. Currently, the consensus expects a NFP growth close to +200k in April after +230k in March. This level is strong enough to bring down the unemployment rate in the US and to provide a significant support to income growth.

Market Impacts
Forex: After the publication, the USD depreciates (EUR/USD moving up by 50 pips above 1,149; GBP/USD began to rise before the publication and remain stable after it; USD/JPY is down by 10 pips to 81.0 yen for dollar.
Commodities: For gold and WTI oil, prices were already moving upward before the publication and accelerate further just after it. Gold return just above 1540 $/oz and the WTI was back to 110.8 $/b.


Wednesday, May 4th 2011

World Economic Snapshot
CB 0.25% 1.50% 6.56% 0.1% 0.5% 1% 0.25% 12.25%
GDP 2.3% 2.5% 9.8% 2.5% 1.8% 2.9% 2.4% 4.2%
Price 3.6% 2.7% 5.5% 0.3% 4.5% 3.3% 0.3% 6.1%
UR 9.2% 9.9% - 4.7% 7.7% 7.4% 3.0% 6.0%

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